Deutsche Bank – Asset Valuation Allocation Models 2002

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Deutsche Bank – Asset Valuation Allocation Models 2002

How can we judge whether stock prices are too high, too low, or just right? The purpose of this weekly report is to track a stock valuation model that attempts to answer this question. While the model is very simple, it has been quite accurate and can also be used as a stocks-versus-bonds asset allocation tool. I started to study the model in 1997, after reading that the folks at the Federal Reserve have been using it. If it is good enough for them, it’s good enough for me. I dubbed it the Fed’s Stock Valuation Model (FSVM), though no one at the Fed ever officially endorsed it. On December 5, 1996, Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, famously worried out loud for the first time about “irrational exuberance” in the stock market. He didn’t actually say that stock prices were too high. Rather he asked the question: “But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions….”۱ He did it again on February 26, 1997.2 2 He probably instructed his staff to devise a stock market valuation model to help him evaluate the extent of the market’s exuberance. Apparently, they did so and it was made public, though buried, in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, which accompanied Mr. Greenspan’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on July 22, 1997.

 

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